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The Process

A principle rule of business problem solving should be: "Don't try to make the problem in front of you be the problem you solved that is behind you."  At a high level, a set evaluation and action process is a good thing, but every situation and market condition will be different. Meaning that your optimum strategic path at the detail level should fit your situation, not a retread of someone else's solution.

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High Level Process

The principle rule of business strategy should be: "There are no perfect people or perfect data, so don't invest time believing that a perfect strategy can be formulated academically." Time is not an ally, particularly when your business has reached a point where you're looking for outside help. My objective is to identify as quickly as possible an initial strategy track the meets the "64% Rule" so that the organization can start moving away from its well beaten path. At that point, multiple tracks can be simultaneously and non-linearly deployed through the various stages with adaptation being the key.  The market will provide feedback on your approach and allow you to optimize the changes you're trying to make.

"64% Rule"

Time is not an ally and inaction typically is as bad, if not worse, than doing something sub optimally. The 64% Rule is the willingness to execute action once a 64% confidence level in your course of action is achieved. The only caveat to the rule is that consideration of the "worse thing that could happen" be done.  In most instances, the costs related to initiating action as early as possible are off-set by the quicker path to a revised and optimized steady state solution.

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Why 64%?  There are two answers: (1) how the number 64% was determined and (2) why not 50% or 70%.

  1. 80% of 80% is 64%.  The assumption is that in the most efficient use of time, only about 80% of confidence and specificity needed for a fully revised strategic model can be determined. In the 80% that are identified, only 80% of the preliminary specifics will result in solutions that survive to the final model.

  2. The United States military has taught in the context of military strategy the 40-70 Rule. Basically, battlefield decisions should never be made with less than 40% confidence and never more than 70%. Like business, military opponents are also working to adjust their tactics and strategy to defeat you. The time commitment needed to increase confidence level is not linear. Higher levels of confidence risk the window closing on any effective tactical of strategic change.

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